Of Huckleberry Finn, Brad Wilkerson and OPS

Mark Twain said something about three kinds of lies: "lies, (really bad) lies and statistics."

Guess he wouldn't have been a big fan of Bill James and all his statistical disciples who have used a mind-boggling array of statistics to explain and quantify baseball.Wy7xtgiv

Probably wasn't keen on OPS, which is one of many statistics used to quantify offensive production. OPS is simply figured out by adding a player's on-base percentage to his slugging percentage.

Doug Melvin was the first to tell me about OPS and he was a big believer. He said anything over .800 is a good OPS. If it was good enough for Melvin, it's good enough for me, although neither one of us could have ever written Huckleberry Finn.

But let's not talk about Huckleberry Finn, let's talk about Brad Wilkerson.

There are people in this country who want to ban Huckleberry Finn and there are people who want the Rangers to get rid of Brad Wilkerson, including some who read and comment on Monday Morning Manager.

Banning Huckleberry Finn is criminal. Getting rid of Brad Wilkerson seems premature.

Why? OPS.

Over the past five years, Wilkerson has an .831 OPS, a combination of a .370 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage. Among outfielders with at least 1,390 plate appearances (a modest 278 per season), Wilkerson has the 35th highest OPS in the Major Leagues.

That's among the 87 outfielders who have the minimum 1,390 number of plate appearances. That number was set by STATS Inc., the source of our data. Have to ask Mark Twain why STATS Inc. established 1,390 as the base.

Vernon Wells has an .839 OPS over the past five years so Wilkerson is only eight points lower than the Blue Jays great center fielder, a guy the Rangers and their fans overtly covet.250pxhuckleberryfinnwithrabbit

But here are a few guys who trail Wilkerson in OPS in the past five years: Torii Hunter (.813), Johnny Damon (.809), Ichiro Suzuki (.808) and the beloved Kevin Mench (.807.

Kenny Lofton's OPS is .781. Of course he's more on-base than power but his on-base is .360, which is 14 points lower than Wilkeron.

Yes Wilkerson is 10th in overall strikeouts and second in plate appearance-per-strikeout so you can still flog him for that. But he has the 12th best plate appearances-per-walk so that ought to count for something.

Or not.

Hey, he had a bad year in 2006. A terrible year. But somebody told me in Spring Training that his shoulder was messed up. Asked Wilkerson and he either denied it or downplayed it.

Then he finally had surgery.

Now he says the shoulder feels great and the Rangers expect him to be ready for Spring Training. So there no excuses anymore.

The point in all of this?

He deserves a second chance in 2007, not only a second chance to play for the Rangers but a second chance by fans to be re-evaluated as a player. If Sammy Sosa deserves a second chance, then Wilkerson certainly does.

If he falters again, the Rangers will obviously have to adjust and Wilkerson will be long gone, out of sight and out of mind.

But if this guy returns to the level that he was a few years ago, he can help the Rangers. He'll never be Alfonso Soriano and that trade obviously did not favor the Rangers. Instead it was the reverse. It was a flop.

But Wilkerson is not as bad as some believe.

Promise.

His OPS says so.

Just ask Mark Twain.

Or re-read Huckleberry Finn, a true American classic.

17 Comments

Yeah, but Bingosinatra's video evidence ......... sorry, I couldn't help myself. Here's hoping that Brad is 100% going into this season allowing him to get on base around 37% of the time and hit 25+ homers. In a horrible, injury plagued season last year, his production was almost identical to Sammy Sosa's 2005 season. If one of those two is going to provide protection to Hank and Tex in the lineup my money is on Brad.
Nice column TR, and I couldn't agree more about Huckleberry Finn.

Huckelberry Finn might be one of my favorite literary classics but heres my opion on Brad. I think last season wasnt a season to judge Brad on and isn't one that we will see from him again but if Frank continues to do what he does and Nelson Cruz does 1/2 of what everyone wants him to do then you end up with an outfield with not enough playing time espicially if Sammy makes the club and you wind up keeping Botts up in the majors. I know Brad is a great person to have in the clubhouse and hes very unselfish. So the answer might not be trading Brad but might be packaging Botts and one of our bullpen guys for a starter because I'm not to sure about our 4th and 5th starters this year.

I'd rather read Huckleberry Finn or read about Jason Botts than hear about Brad Wilkerson

Brad Wilkerson has not made a believer or trustworthy comment since he has become a Ranger. Harsh words for someone who is not playing the game, but observing it. I watched Brad non-aggressive approach to the game when he was in the field. Being aggressive in the field is part of being supportive to the team, even when your bat is failing because of “injuries.” His play reminded me so much of Juan Gonzalez, where is he now, play. If you can not go all out for a fly baseball that falls 10 feet from you then what can we expect from a totally healthy Brad.


I know someone out there will throw out the great effort Brad made last year to catch a baseball as he crashed head first into the out of town scoreboard. Yes, it was a tremendous effort to an effortlessly first part of the season.

Brad may have a great OPS but it accounts for nothing if his play does not keep people off the bases. I am all for giving someone a second chance, Lord knows I have been given many. His ability to get on base and contact with the baseball may assist the Rangers to get runs, but we also have to limit the amount of runs by fundamental baseball play for each player, including Brad. Even if Brad’s bat does not come around due to timing and confidence, he should not let his fielding drop below the ability of those whom he has replaced.

I briefly spoke with Brad during fan fest on January 27, 2007. It was, as I said brief, “How is the shoulder, and are you mobile now?”

“Great and there is no stiffness at all,” He said.

Translation is I hurt and still uncomfortable if we compare what he said at the beginning of the 2006 season.

I do hope you are great Brad because I see something in your eyes that says you want to be a winner. Please just use your heart in the game and completely give us your all. If you are hurt and can not make the plays you should, then own up to it and let someone else fill the position.

Netman - 2007 Ranger Review

I believe Doug Melvin, and trust him implicitly T.R.... I'm basing my opinion on my frame-by-frame advance on my VCR, my 2 eyes, and the cool breeze which surrounds Mr. Brad Wilkerson's bat when he whiffs and misses...or doesn't even bother lift the bat off of his shoulder when taking strike three.


Instead of shoulder surgery, I would suggest for him to have first tried laser surgery on his eyes which never let his bat connect with the ball very often, then for a visit with a sports pychologist to ascertain why he tries to uppercut the ball and jack every ball out of the park when the situation dictates a single, (you too, Hank) OR why he always seems to leave a teammate on third base with less than two outs....neither of these have much at all to do with shoulder surgery.

Naysayers may say, "Well, Brad hits the ball with authority and has shown some sporadic power"--to which I say "Even a blind hog can pick up an acorn every now and then". So it is with Brad.

I wish this gentleman well in his baseball endeavors, and pray his surgery has gone just fine, BUT, I hope he plies his trade with another team. Not being rude here, but my 2 eyes and VCR tell me all is not well in Rangerville, if they if are counting on much at all out of Brad. They are just keeping him here I feel to justify (in their minds) that the Soriano trade wasn't "that" bad. Hoping for a diamond in the rough, with Brad, is, uhhh, well, futile. C'mon J.D., see if the Red Sox will take him straight-up for David Ortiz. They might just be licking their chops to unload Ortiz, like we did for Soriano. Sound ridiculous? So is trading Soriano for (clearing throat..Brad Wilkerson). I rest my case.

I hope hefe300 and belief84 aren't just a-kiddin'. By the way, if you taped any games last season and did not witness Wilkerson striking out with avengeance, your VCR needs to be serviced. Trading Botts to clear the way for Wilkerson? Y'all MUST not be watching the same games. You can certainly defend Brad, but when he comes in at that "great" OPS average again, and hits .256 with 50 RBI's and a WORLD OF WHIFFS, men left on base, and bats stuck on shoulders, let's just see what the "great" OPS gets the Texas Rangers--another disappointing season. I'm hoping Wilkerson, if he's kept (yikes!) will be the second-coming of Ruben Sierra, but I'm not going to hold my breath--but I DO wish the man well.

I felt obliged to let you go first, Bingo. Afterall T.R. brought it out of the stable this time, so I can't accuse you of beating the same argument again, after it's already dead.


And this time you spoke of genuine shortcomings beyond mere strikeouts (i.e. failing to move the runner). Thank you.

Furthermore, I need to go on record as saying that I was FOR the Soriano trade, and for the whole year I was WRONG.

BUT look at the OPS for Soriano and Wilkerson in 2004 and 2005 combined: IT'S THE SAME NUMBER FOR BOTH: 1629 (or an average of 814.5 per year FOR EACH)!

Eerie.

I'm willing to bet that Soriano comes back down, and Wilk goes back up, to about the same number, so that their OPS is similar again this year.

Then ask yourself whose contract you'd prefer.

With the Anti-Wilkerson social milieu, I feel like Huck, hiding out on an island, deciding to save Jim from slavery, despite being convinced by society that it was "bad" to do so: "Alright," he says, "I'll go to ****"... (but I'm sticking with Wilk).

The guy said it best the other day, Brad Craperson!

I suppose the truth lies somewhere in between all our opinions, don't you? I can only say for the "anti" bunch that I would rather use some of our young players in that roster spot. While OPS may be an infallible indicator Brad let us down badly last year when we had a chance to show up in first. Much as I dislike the way it was put to us here... he struck out ...looking badly...why? I don't know or care. I wish him success...Bottsy, Diaz and Cruz are better alternatives.

Good take TR.... I'm for second chances!!! He shows a lot of heart to play hurt, better yet not make excuses about it.


If Brad fails, it all goes back to JD.... Just another in the long line of bad decisions he has made.

On-Base % Slugging% Batting AVG


SORIANO

2004 .324 .484 .280

2005 .309 .512 .268

2006 .351 .560 .277

BRAD WILKERSON

2004 .374 .498 .255

2005 .351 .405 .248

2006 .306 .422 .222

SAMMY

2004 .332 .517 .253

2005 .295 .376 .221

2006 .000 .000 .000

"The point in all of this?" (asks TR regarding Wilkerson)

"He deserves a second chance in 2007, not only a second chance to play for the Rangers but a second chance by fans to be re-evaluated as a player. If Sammy Sosa deserves a second chance, then Wilkerson certainly does."

ALLELUIA!

And if BOTH of them deserve a 2ND chance, then Botts, Arias, Byrd, Diaz, Kata... deserve a 1ST AND A 2ND!

All things being equal at the end of Spring Training, we should go with the best hope to develop through '07 for '08.

"All great American Literature emanates from one great book, Huckleberry Finn." Walt Whitman. Now Sullivan, the fact that you compare any Ranger player to any thing associated with the greatness of Samuel Clemens, "Mark Twain" the author of Huckleberry Finn is nuts. Twain is the greatest American Author and you do yourself and him a disservice when you associate his greatness with what has been and is going on in Arlington, Texas. Next time use Edward Arlington Robinson's Miniver Cheevy or Richard Cory, hopefully Hicks will read Cory, or Robert Frost's poem where two roads diverged in the woods, and i, i took the one less traveled by and that has made all of the difference. At least Frost could pick a path, something Hicks doesn't appear to be able to do!

TR, No matter how you try to justify it the main difference is Soriano's OPS is increasing each year from 2004 to 2006 .808,.821 to .911 while, Wilkerson's is decreasing .872, .756 and .728. Soriano has way more HR's and Batted .055 higher than Wilkerson. This was a bad deal and that ain't gonna change, especially when Daniels turns around six months later and gives up Mench, Nix and Cordero to get Lee an impending free-agent.. Weren't we told when they dealt Soriano that he was an impending free agent and couldn't re-sign him? Then six months later they acquire Lee and impending free agent, who they had no intention of signing. This ain't hindsight, they missed Soriano badly and should have kept him at least until the All-Star break where they could have probably gotten a better deal for him. All they did was complain about Soriano's errors at 2B, well I believe Kinsler had more errors at 2B, but we didn't here a peep about it. Why? Because he has a low salary. Ridiculous, Ridiculous, Ridiculous. Stop giving your talent away Daniels. Trade means to get value in return. In this case you sure as H#ll didn't get it. Soriano is a top ten player. By the By, Soriano had all those numbers in that graveyard of a field in Washington!!

Think of it as Cordero and Nix for Nelson Cruz; and Mench for Lee.


I'd do that deal again today, especially given the 1st round pick we get for Lee (to build up the Farm System that you've been harping on, Dwid.

Hey eightgleasons, maybe i should change my e-mail address to harponrangermgt.com. Do you think i would own that address? The first round picks are great if you could trust the Rangers to pick some good players. Historically we just haven't done well. Name one player that the Rangers have drafted in round one other than Teixiera and Kevin Brown that have turned out to be worth a d##n! And if they did turn out, they soon leave. Firstoff, i am just pointing out the facts and am a true Ranger fan. I am just having fun and want the Rangers to do well. I just don't think that ignoring the facts and circumstances of the situation is the way to achieve victory! In my profession, the legal field we have to cut to the chase identify the issue and correct the problem under intense pressure. This is what i would like to see the Rangers do. By the way guys, don't take any of this stuff personally.

The Senators drafted Burroughs by the way.

Leave a comment