The GM's Almanac...The Epic of Gil Meche
A near-daily look at the winter Hot Stove happenings...
The Rangers have talked about and/or with just about every pitcher that's available and that includes Gil Meche, a 28-year-old right-hander who may have as much upside as any pitcher in the draft.
Problem is teams are going to be bidding serious money on his potential more than his production and that ultimately is what gets general managers into trouble.
Meche was the Mariners No. 1 pick in 1996 who was in the big leagues by 1999 and missed all of 2001-2002 because of shoulder surgery. Since then he is 43-36 with a 4.75 ERA in 116 games, including 113 starts.
Among right-handers over the past four years, he is 38th in wins, 51st in innings pitched (644), 44th in opponents batting average (.266) and 40th with a .544 winning percentage.
He has never pitched 200 innings. He was 15-13 with a 4.59 ERA in 1861/3 innings in 2003 and 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA in 32 starts and 1862/3 innings last season. The 11 wins were his second highest in a season.
In case you were wondering, over the past four years Vicente Padila is 45-41 with 4.28 ERA and .261 opponents batting average in 671 innings.
Again, going over the past four years, Meche has struck out 6.54 batters per nine innings while Padilla is at 6.36. But Padilla has allowed fewer hits (8.95 to 9.35), baserunners (12.88 to 13.22) and walks per nine innings (3.25 to 3.72) than Meche.
Neither really stand out, even among right-handers. For example, Padilla is 63rd among right-handers in the past four years among fewest baserunners per nine innings while Meche is 69th.
Meche missed a month in 2005 with patella tendinitis in his right knee but has otherwise been healthy. He throws 92-95 with a curve ball as his second pitch. He has a 9.20 ERA at Ameriquest Field, his second highest for any park with at least one start.
He is looking for at least $8 million a year and the Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams that are hot after him.
Let the Cubs or Red Sox have him, at least at $8 mill for 3 or 4 years. It's all about value with players like Meche. If you can sign him for a one year or one year/team option for another year contract with lots of incentives (similar to the contract Oakland signed Frank Thomas to last season), then yeah, go ahead. But not a long term contract for big money to a guy who is and will essentially be a fourth starter, based on his previous numbers. He's not worth it.
I'd rather see the Rangers take a lower-money risk on someone like Randy Wolf or Mark Mulder, guys coming off injury who may be willing to sign for less, or take a shot at someone like Jason Marquis who had similar numbers to Meche but could also probably be signed for much less. Or if you have to pay big money, go out and get Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux (though they probably wouldn't leave the National League) for a two-year contract at $7-10 mill per year. At least you know they produce, can eat up some innings, and wouldn't need a long-term contract (Andy Pettite would be another to look at for the same reason).
The big point here is value and payroll flexibility. As easy as it would be to spend Hick's money (or the money of any other owner), we should all realize that there are limits to what they will spend. The key is to put together the best team for the least amount of money (unless you're the Yankees or Red Sox). Spending $8 mill per for a fourth starter isn't the way to do business.
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