Of Mauritania, Fukudome and Jason Jennings
Random thoughts on Mauritania Independence Day:
So we know the Rangers are interested in Kosuke Fukudome and club officials are quietly expressing optimism that they are seriously in the hunt. Still no word if Fukudome is actually coming to America or will stay in Japan.
The Yomiuri Giants really want him bad but the Rangers would seem to prefer him for something like $30 million over three years instead of Aaron Rowand.
Yes the Rangers are interested in Rowand but the asking price right now is supposedly $75 million over five years. That’s what the Rangers offered Torii Hunter. But if the Rangers weren’t willing to go there with Gary Matthews Jr. then it seems logical that they won’t with Rowand.
Coco Crisp? Word is the Red Sox want three young pitchers for him: Eric Hurley, Luis Mendoza and one other young lower-level prospect. Doesn’t seem something that would interest the Rangers.
Mike Cameron may be available on a two-year deal. Scott Boras is working really hard trying to get the Rangers interested in Andruw Jones. So far he hasn’t had much success.
The guess here is the Rangers are going to push as hard as they can on Fukudome. He makes more sense financially and won’t be as much of a burden to them in the future.
Then maybe you could line up with:
2B Kinsler
1B Catalanotto
SS Young
3B Blalock
RF Fukudome
CF Byrd
DH Botts
C Saltalamacchia
LF Murphy
Cameron could fit in there nicely as well. Then you add a couple of bullpen pieces and go to war. You might even add Jason Jennings to the rotation mix. The Rangers definitely have at least some interest there, sources said.
Still think the Rangers and the Mets are going to talk about Gerald Laird. The Rangers would love to get Carlos Gomez, a Minor League outfielder, back in any deal. But the Mets do have some young pitching in Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber. But it looks like the Mets are going to push hard on Johan Santana.
Could the Rangers get Santana? Probably not. It would probably take Edinson Volquez, Hurley, Kinsler and Byrd. Ran that by one Rangers official and he said that was too much to give up, especially if Santana walks after one year.
The Rangers do have to be interested in reliever Joe Nathan if the Twins try to move him. Problem is he can walk after 2008. But if you can hold the asking price to two players, you get two draft picks if you can’t re-sign him.
But all these plans depend heavily on some serious internal improvements.
1. Kinsler needs to have a big year at leadoff spot.
2. Blalock: 32 home runs, 110 RBI as he did in 2004.
3. Saltalamacchia has to be the real deal.
4. Volquez and McCarthy
5. Millwood and Padilla
6. Jason Botts.
7. Wilson and Benoit.
8. How fast is Eric Hurley going to come?
9. How fast is Chris Davis going to come?
10. John Mayberry Jr. where are you?
T.R. Sullivan
Toby
But all these plans depend heavily on some serious internal improvements.
1. Kinsler needs to have a big year at leadoff spot.
2. Blalock: 32 home runs, 110 RBI as he did in 2004.
3. Saltalamacchia has to be the real deal.
4. Volquez and McCarthy
5. Millwood and Padilla
6. Jason Botts.
7. Wilson and Benoit.
8. How fast is Eric Hurley going to come?
9. How fast is Chris Davis going to come?
10. John Mayberry Jr. where are you?
Ha Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, Flipper can’t stay in the lineup long enough to hit 32 Home Runs and 110 RBI, besides who was hitting behind him in 2004? I don’t see anyone here now that can protect him. All of those guys need to come quickly. I think Teagarden and Duran will be here faster than Davis and Hurley. Counting on Padilla other than hitting a batter is fools gold. Same thing for Millwood. The goal shouldn’t be to compete next year. Our starting pitching is ridiculous. Everyone is too inconsistent. Millwood and Padilla are 4′s and 5′s on a good staff. Millwood can be dealt. Not so sure about Padilla, but we probably would have to give him away something we are good at. Go young and get rid of him while you are at it. I give him til the all-star break before he starts wrankling the Rangers brass. Good Bye Mike good luck with those 3000 hits.
I personally think that it would create some excitement if we started playing all of the future guys. I think Duran is player. Teagarden can hit. One of my main questions is why do we have alot of minor leaguers aged 27 to 30 plus years old down there. What are we waiting for? By the time you figure out a guy can play at 28 to 30 you have wasted a large part of his career. Get those guys up here or get rid of them. It is that simple.
If Murphy plays, and he would in my book, then he leads off. The guy has smokin speed, no one else comes near that guy and he has to be one of the fastest guys in baseball. Kinsler can hit second in my book. FUKUDOME, aint coming here. We aren’t in any position to deal our prospects for any front liners. At this point it would not help and would only serve to hurt. I think we have several guys that are close to playing. So lets do it. All young players struggle, Texiera hit like .247 but played his way through it, Blalock was the same way, Pudge the same, Juan the same. Put those guys out there Davis, Mayberry, Teagarden, Cruz, Duran, Metcalf, Murphy, let the struggle and progress. 2008 is a wash. We should be trying to find and develop pitchers and players, not worry about winning. When we do that, then we will have turned the corner and start to begin reaping the rewards of our focus on what we should be about. It is the journey, the development, the getting there that is the fun. And then after all of our hard work, determination and focus we win it all.
Guys in their 30′s in the minors are what’s known as “organizational filler.” Dave Matranga and Desi Relaford last year at OKC was are good examples. They had to have somebody play the position, but didn’t have a 3B ready for AAA.
That’s a lot of items to fulfill.
Now that it seems that the Twins are close to trading Matt Garza (+2) for the “Rays” Delmon Young, Brendan Harris (the guy who batted .458/.519/.542 against us last year), and CF prospect Jason Pridie (an OK prospect), they might not be so willing to trade Johan Santana.
This could work in the Rangers’ favor if the deal goes down and if the Twins DO NOT trade Johan Santana (which still isn’t a sure thing)
The Twins could fill their CF void with Jason Pridie and Young (who started 28 games in center last year) thus taking them out of the running for Coco Crisp (I know nobody’s going to give up 3 prospects for him but I’ll get back to that)
IF Santana isn’t traded, the Red Sox and Mets might want to focus on their catching situation again. Meaning, better offers for a package that includes Gerald Laird.
Hopefully, Santana plays out the final year of his contract and becomes a free agent next year. That way, the Rangers will actually have a shot at making him an offer (unlike the Carlos Zambrano deal).
That’s a lot of implications but still not as many as TR’s.
As for Crisp. He’s not worth 3 prospects but you can’t blame Theo Epstein for setting a high price. In another offseason, he might have gotten 1 major leaguer and 1 good prospect. Not this year, though.
I’m starting to like the idea of Mike Cameron coming here. But I wouldn’t give him more than a 2 year deal. His numbers are decent but when you consider the places where he has played (Seattle, PETCO, and Shea), you could see them get better here in Arlington. If Fukudome decides to leave Japan, I’d be all for signing him as well. I don’t think he can do worse in RF than Nelson Cruz.
Let us face these facts. We are a training ground a AAA franchise in a Major League Town. Young players prove they can play against major league talent and once they do that it is to greener pastures. The only time that really hasn’t happened is in the 90′s when we were winning some division titles. Some of the players on those teams were home grown, Greer, Rodriguez, Palmer, Gonzalez, Witt. Some of the others were acquired through good trades. Some were free-agents. The point is i do not think we should be signing any free-agents unless they fit into our long range plans. In other words are they young enough. Cameron is too old at 35 or 36, and he tested positive for a banned stimulant, which wasn’t caffiene. Some popular stimulants, Cocaine, Ephedrine….. She don’t lie, she don’t lie, Cocaine…..Clapton, who knows more about Heroin than he ever knew about Coke. Hey another Rangers Marketing Strategy to go along with You could use some baseball. Coke is it! You could have Cameron endorse it and we would all be wondering??? Cocaine has an average buzz of about 90 minutes, about as long as it takes for us to be down by 10 runs at home in the first inning.
Hey riega, Cruz is THE player, in the deal of Cordero, Mench and Nix. It is who we wanted. He is tearing it up in Winter Ball, hopefully he will make the next step. Unfortunately when he does take that next step we won’t be able to afford him and it will be his first step out of town. This is my main problem. We would have spent all this time, effort and money on this guy and once he hits 35 home runs and drives in 100 plus runs. Then he is going to want his money, and they will refuse to give it to him. The Rangers are going to have to realize that this is counter productive, and just puts us further behind. Are minor leagues aren’t in bad a shape as everyone thinks. We just have to keep cultivating the minors, until we can start drawing from them. I say play Duran, Teagarden, Davis, Mayberry, Boggs, Borbon, Metcalf, Arias, Andrus, Hurley, Mendoza, Volquez, Harrison, Diamond now. Lets get on with it. Most of those players are going to be good major leaguers.
Put this in three inch headlines. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER EVER, NEVER. SANTANA ain’t going to pitch here. So don’t mention it. When you have the likes of the Angels, Yankees, Tigers and Red Sox, after you. Then we can forget it. And i digress, for those of you who don’t know over 85 % of all murders committed in the United States are done by people with a prior relationship, in other words, most people killed knew their killers. I say that to say this. It is a complete tragedy what happened in Florida to Taylor. However once this all plays out, the killer will probably be someone that he knew was prior friends with and that is sad but is reality.
Actually, I hope the Fukudome guy doesn’t come here. First off, he’s over 30 (32 or 33, if Memory serves, which is OLDER than Aaron Rowand) and second of all, seriously, guys, would you really want a guy named Fukudome in our OF? Come on. That makes sense for the Mariners or the Dodgers, but here in Texas, we already have enough trouble remebering how to pronounce Akinori Otsuka – and now we want a guy named Kosuke Fukudome?
In all seriousness, I really do think he’s just too old to be anything more than a 1-2 year stopgap. His power probably won’t be over 25-28 home runs, even here in Arlington, and from what I’ve heard, his speed and range in the OF ain’t particularly impressive.
The Rangers need to **** it up, and give Aaron Rowand what he wants. He’s 30, he can do just about everything Torri Hunter could have, and he hits for a better average than Torri. He’s the guy we should have been after from day 1. But we’ve probably waited too long – now that Torri is off the Market, intrest in Rowand is so high, it’s left the Rangers running like bunch of schoolgirls at the mention of the word “salary”.
For the same reason, I won’t even mention Andruw Jones.
So that leaves us with our fallback Mike Cameron. I guess he’s the best option. 21 home runs last year, but he hit .242, and struck out 160 times – ah, well, I guess with Brad Wilkerson gone, we need somebody to strike out 3 times a game – why not Mike Cameron?
You forget that the Rangers also drafted Beavan and Borbon with the compensation they received for Carlos Lee. But that doesn’t matter to you, right? Because in the end, they will excel here and walk away after six years and whatever compensation we get for them, will away walk too, and we will still be here, bemoaning the Rangers fate, and you will still be here, reminding us how things will never change as long as Hicks and [whoever the GM and manager are] run this team.
But anyway, I agree that we should give the young kids a chance. But they have to be ready (just a look at certain Dallas Cowboys QB). I’m not saying that football and baseball are the same but our OF prospects are way behind the rest. Borbon stunk last year in short season ball, albeit in limited playing time. Boggs is still maturing. And where do you get the idea that David Murphy is one the fastest players in baseball? He’s never stolen more than 15 bases in a single season.
lonestar: Who cares about the guy’s name as long as he produces. Do you really want to give Aaron Rowand 5 yr/ $ 75 million?
By the way, lonestar. You are totally right. Fukudome is older than Rowand. But not by 2 or 3 years. He’s 4 “months” older than Rowand. So a 3 yr contract for a 30 yr old RF is not so bad. But hey. Don’t get worked up about this. He might not even come here anyway.
Of course the Rangers also got Beavan and Bourbon as the result of the Cordero trade, but DGod never lets the facts get of a rant and while we’re at it never mind the fact that the Rangers could have had Cordero back if they wanted him becuase he just signed a FA deal with Cincinnati.
He was right about the horrible trade that we made with San Diego a few years back. It was one of the worst in team history, but when you make up things to complain about it kind of takes the wind out of the legitimate things like pointing to the 90′s as an era of player retenion when Pudge was allowed to walk in his free agent year, Juan Gonzalez and Dean Palmer were traded before becoming free agents and Bobby Witt was traded twice.
Andruw Jones is my choice to be signed in Center. In fact, he could play a power/corner position and solve that position. We have a popgun offense, and with Botts as a DH (a tremendous joke in itself), Andruw Jones makes tremendous sense. If Jones swings over to play a corner outfield spot, Byrd or Murphy can solve CF for us. I still have no answers for First Base, unless Hank would be willing to move there considering his shoulder and throwing arm ain’t what they used to be, but he can still hit.
Pitching can improve internally. Hurley could be brought up–I hope he is brought along slowly and not brought up initially. Volquez made nice strides last season. I still think Robinson Tejeda, (yes he that 2-hit the World Series winning Red Sox last year on a 30+ degree night)in April, I think is still a force we need to consider for the starting staff. IF Millwood and Padilla can somehow rebound, and Loe, Benoit, Aki, CJ, etc..can man the pen, we might be alright…..
NOW, let me say, I’d love to bring in a Santana, but not at the expense of young pitching. I’d dangle Mayberry, Duran, etc…to get a STUD like Santana.
Lastly, losing Torii Hunter, and losing Barry Zito a year earlier, is fine and dandy. Remember Chan Ho, A-Rod, etc…and all the big-money spent on them by Soccer-loving Hicks, brought us last place 3 years in a row. It might be a blessing that Hunter didn’t come here and eat up a large chunk of Hick’s Liverpool payroll excess.
Every season, when the Rangers bashed the ball out of the Park at an incredible frequency, all the Baseball “experts” said wonderful things about us…of course, we didn’t win then either. I think we should rebuild. NOW. Find out who the players are, and go forward. Trying to win is very remote for the near future. ALL, and I mean ALL, of our STUD-PLAYERS (Soriano, Tex, etc) are gone-gone-gone. We MUST blow it up and rebuild. Sorry Michael. I’m sorry, but it’s for the best. The ONE THING I CAN BE CERTAIN OF: Jason Botts is a tremendous BUST! I pity all of the forever Rose-colored glasses-wearing bloggers here who think Botts will ever hit his weight. He can’t field a position. He can’t hit situationally, and he swings and misses way too much. Can anyone mutter the words, “Brad Wilkerson?” It makes me shudder, literally, to have Botts as my DH.
I’d let JD explore the chance of bringing in a Bobby Abreu or Carlos Beltran (offer Mayberry, Feldman, Padilla, etc.)…One of those two could help our offense immensely.
That is all at this time. More later as we make more inept decisions on personnel.
http://www.armchairgm.com/Kosuke_Fukudome
I forget; did you give us this site TR?
Anyway, this is the player I wouldn’t mind the Rangers investing Torii money & years in.
He will stick through our 3 rebuilding and 3 first contending years.
I keep wondering what I am missing in all of the ranting and raving about Hicks and how everybody knows how to spend his money.
Then when Hunter signs with LA everybody who previously said the Rangers should not sign Hunter whines because the cheapskate Rangers didn’t offer Hunter more money.
The same scenario when Woods signed with Cubs.
Soriano is another example. A streaky hitter who plays poor defense. Leaves the Rangers he beomes the player the Rangers should have moved heaven and earth to keep according to what I read on this site.
I was greatly disappointed when Chris Young was traded to San Diego because (from the grapevine) Showalter felt like he wasn’t durable. I may be mistaken because I only follow the NL casually but wasn’t Young on the DL most of last season?
The Rangers have a catcher in Laird that the Red Sox and Mets want. Everybody here says TRADE LAIRD he only hits .220 and ignores the fact he is a top defensive catcher. Let Saltalamacchia play catcher? To quote dwidregod “Ha Ha”. “Salty” hasn’t mastered the art of throwing to second base or blocking pitches in the dirt. Maybe he will develop into a hitter. He isn’t yet. Keep Laird as starting catcher. Move Salty to first or to left field. If Laird is traded to the Red Sox for someone like Coco Crisp that the Red Sox didn’t even want to start in the World Series that is plain and simple crazy.
Again I say the Rangers have an above average bullpen, a solid 2B and SS, a solid catcher. They are missing a superior CF and good starting pitching. They might be able to attract such a CF but there is no way any ace pitcher will sign with the Rangers at this time. The best approach is still to develop the prospects that are in the minors.
The Rangers aren’t going to win the West anytime soon. However this team is not as terrible as everyone on this site keeps complaining about.
Yes Chris Young was on the DL last year, however, he still started 30 games, had 173.0 innings pitched, a 3.12 ERA with 167 strikeouts to 77 walks for a record of 9-8. He would have been second in victories and first in ERA if he were pitching here. For the record Young has won 20 games and lost 13 out there had an ERA of around 3.30, started 62 games, struck out 331 batters, and walked 141 and pitched 352. 1 innings. He pitched 6.1 less innings than he did in 2006. His overall record with the Rangers 15-9 with pretty similar numbers that he has with the Padres. Sounds like consistency, someone we could use. I personally think they dealt him because they thought he and Loe were similar pitchers, and Young was making more money. This is where i differ with them. I believe you can never have enough pitching. Now for Adrian Gonzalez, this is getting ugly, ha ha. After his 59 GAME TRYOUT with the Rangers over 2 years, he hit .235 with 8 HRS and 24 RBI’s, the former FIRST ROUND, #1 OVERALL PICK was traded. Eventhough i really don’t consider this a trade it was more like a fleecing here is what Mr. Gonzalez has done out there. 317 Games played, .291 BA, 54 HR’s, 182 RBI’s, 84 Doubles, in 1216 At Bats. And a flawless first base fielding wise. Also did i mention he was only 25 years old???? Now having said all this, i say this, what is done, is done. In the future we have to give these guys more of a chance than a 59 game tryout. Especially when everything in their past points to them being a player, like being the #1 OVERALL pick. That is a freaking indicator. Their is an adjustment when you step from the minor leagues to the major leagues. Way too often we have cut the chord on these guys. If you are the #1 Overall pick in the draft and you just have got to the major leagues you have to get more than 59 games. He got more than that in San Diego and they will probably reap the rewards that should have been ours. If we would have just stayed patient. I personally would have moved Tex, even with his Gold Glove to the OF and played Gonzalez a prototypical first baseman. I think we have seen that all Gonzalez needed was consistent playing time. IF we did that 2 years ago and didn’t make that deal, we would be better off. As i said before, sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing. And DANIELS don’t you dare deal Duran or Teagarden.
I didn’t mention Gonzales, dwidregod, because I completely agree with you on that score. And as I said I was very disappointed with the Chris Young trade. Peace.
The power threat from this line up makes me want to cry. It will be very tough for this lineup to run support our starting pitching. Somebody call Jose Canseco and see if he can “hook up” some of these guys if you know what I mean.
It is all fun, Wolff, i am not angry. Did anyone else read Revo’s article in the newspaper today? If not try this on and i doth quote, We pushed our chips to the middle of the table in the middle of last season.” Jon Daniels. What does that mean? Does it mean we are all in, totally committed to a youth movement? If so, then why did you pursue Hunter? Is their a long term plan? Or is it the same ole, same ole? Believe me i am right about this. Last year we signed Lofton, Gagne and Sosa, for what? Now we are talking about Cameron, for what? Now Daniels made good trades at the all-star break when he was dealing veterans and Texiera. If we are going to sign a free-agent, then get some one like a Jason Jennings or any other younger player that we can use over the long haul. As a poker player, i must say that his use of the poker terms is very confusing. I am all for it if he means that we are all in for a youth movement. If i were GM of this team, i would try to deal this “chips” Millwood, Cat, Blalock, Young, Otsuka, Laird and Padilla. Blalock, Otsuka and Padilla during the All-Star Break. Kinsler, Murphy, Teagarden, Davis, Metcalf, Arias, DURAN, GOLD, BOTTS, BORBON, CRUZ, even Botts would get a chance to play. More than 59 games i would dare say. When we do that, we are going to turn the corner and be on the way up.
Nice post, dwi, but there is no guarantee that we will be on our way up when we go young. Don’t get me wrong though, our probability of success does increase over our previous attempts.
If we commit to youth (the Rangers still haven’t) the team switches to a heavier reliance on scouting and development. The system that was 28th last year is now supposed to magically produce major league ready talent to fill all the holes in the major league lineup in 2008. Well, it is just too much to ask, without using fodder (organizational depth). This fodder isn’t going to contribute to winning, but it does play for cheap.
Last years’ ASB trades changed the system, but only a few of those players are ML ready. History says more than half of the prospects acquired will not experience success at the major league level. We are counting on scouting and development to determine who will pan out and who won’t. Now I don’t think I have to make a big case to support the statement that these areas have not exactly been the organization’s greatest strengths in the past.
I am confident these areas have improved, and if y’all don’t read any of Jamey Newberg’s work, it has been encouraging reading. But it is certainly not an overnight deal, and there are certainly no guarantees.
One change that I really thought gave the Rangers a great chance to quickly improve was the latest managerial change. Buck was absolutely the worst possible manager for a franchise that needed to get younger. I blame him for the lack of ABs for several players that moved on and blossomed that were discussed above. As for those who remained in the system, Buck’s handling set our development back a couple of years with his jerking players around at the first sign of a mistake. No patience, and no understanding or concern for youth. I really though that would end with Wash, but he does not appear to be much of an upgrade as a handler of players – especially his pitching moves during games.
I am no longer encouraged by what I see from RW. This team simply must rebuild, and RW is not a fit for rebuilding, as he has shown. I said a while back that I would back off on my official bandwagon-starting for Matt Walbeck as our new manager during the off-season, and I’m trying to do so, but MAN, it is hard not to go back on that right now – especially with the case for rebuilding getting stronger and stronger.
I’ll wait until after the winter meetings to see what JD can accomplish. But, the off season improvements for the team so far have not been very inspiring (no offense intended, Vasquez).
The only certainties in life are death and taxes. Free-agency isn’t the answer. I will give Daniels a chance, but i agree Washington needs to go. He wants to win now to prove he can manage. He as i would be, is worried about his career, not what is best for this organization. I still think we totally blew it last year when we failed to hire Hillman. Now we will get to see him in action in KC, so watch out. When that team rebounds, where will we be. I think we are going to be forced into playing our young players. It seems this is the only way, that the Rangers will commit to it. I like that. The only way to improve this team is through trades and i am against dealing the young guys. So don’t do it. Deal Millwood, Padilla, Otsuka, Cat, Young, Blalock and Laird. Send Blalock to Minnesota for Pridie. Could we have had Young and played him. Would they have taken, McCarthy, Arias and a class A pitcher for him? Probably not. Now Danks, Arias and a class a pitcher probably would have done it.
I wonder what would it have taken to get that Matt Garza kid from Minnesota. Ian Kinsler perhaps? Probably not. Too late anyway.
The Rangers picked RW as the manager because they STILL thought they had a chance to win. They overestimated their talent, until the last minute when they signed Sammy to help sell tickets.
This is an example of why I still have a few lingering concerns with our scouting and evaluation of our own personnel – it’s been legendary (not the good kind, either). It’s also why Chris Young is no longer here. Just more evidence of why rebuilding holds no guarantees.
You are absolutely right, dwi – Hillman will make a good manager with a young team, and he’s got a young and improving team there in KC. He is in a position where he should experience some success. The GM at KC knows what kind of team he’s got, and picked a manager whose strengths matched the team’s needs. This is the responsibility of anyone who supervises others – put your employees in a position where they can be successful. Hillman will be successful for this reason.
I’m not upset at us not signing Hillman, though he would have been a better fit. I’m disappointed that we still have not committed to a plan (that would have resulted in a better hire). Get a plan and stick with it Hicks/JD, and these decisions aren’t as difficult to make correctly.
Am I starting to see some support for Mike Cameron in the posts? I’d rather lose with Byrd in CF than lose with Cameron in CF. If we can’t do any better than MC, why wouldn’t we see if Kenny Lofton would come back on a one year deal? A move for MC would only be done to put some lipstick on the pig this team is shaping up to look like so far in 2008. I just don’t see any benefit. Besides, it would push Cruz to the bench, and he has been tearing it up in the winter league so far. Play him in 2008 and commit to him, or play him in 2008 and release him. Don’t drag this out like the Botts saga.
Great post on the Ron Wash situation, Briant. I agree with everything you said on that.
About Mike Cameron:
The reason why we could use him is his 21 home runs. With our lousy offense, he’d be like having Brad Wilkerson back – only a Brad Wilkerson that can play CF. Marlon Byrd isn’t bad out there in CF, but defensively, Cameron would be somewhat of an upgrade, so since the Rangers are wimping out on Rowand (and yes, guys, I do think he’s worth 5/75) and Andruw Jones, I think that’s why you’re starting to see more people (including me) seriously considering Mike Cameron. Actually, just accepting the fact that he’s the best we could hope for in CF is more like it. And as for pushing Nelson Cruz to the bench, that actually might be a good thing – more on that below.
But now, I’ll adress my botched rant on Kosuke Fukudome.
I was indeed wrong about his age – thanks, reiga, for correcting me.
Of course, there’s nothing in a name, if this guy where to come here and hit 30 home runs and post the insane OBP he posted in Japan, but if you read the article 8gleasons posted above, even the scouts predict a dropoff in his power #’s when he gets to the bigs (if he indeed does). But that said, 50 doubles never sounds bad.
So I do admit, while I’m still not convinced he’s anything more than a 1-2 year stopgap player, and I would not want him in CF, he might be a decent signing after all. But just one thing: even he doesn’t like his name. Call him Kosuke, if you please.
If nothing else, he’d certainly be an upgrade from Nelson Cruz in RF. And we could defintely use an upgrade there. Nelson Cruz may be ripping in the Winter League, but he’s never been able to translate numbers like that to the Majors. Just look at what he did in AAA this year vs. what he did at the Major League level. This guy is just as much of a flop as Jason Botts has turned out to be – based on his history, I really don’t see any reason to believe Cruz is going to be able to hold down the RF job next year. Right Field is still a gaping hole on this club – quite possibly more of a gaping hole than CF.
But lonestar, briant’s point
“I’d rather lose with Byrd in CF than lose with Cameron in CF,”
is not said out of despair, but out of hope.
Cameron would be better in CF, just as Sammy was better than Botts last year.
But both “betters” are cases of winning the battle and losing the war.
Losing with Botts ALL YEAR last year would have been more productive toward our “war” efforts.Either he would have developed AND shown potential for further development, or he would have seemed to peak out as serviceable, or he would have remained consistently bad throughout the year, and we would have cut him this winter.
Instead, Sammy’s “better” was our worse, because we are left in doubt.
Botts became a full-time player half a year late, flopped for 2 months, and then did show strong improvement for most of a month before the season ended.
Cameron’s “better” would be our worse because Byrd’s and Murphy’s OPS will resemble his, and yet ONE of them might grow into CF in a way that we didn’t have time to see last year (w/ Murphy coming late, and Lofton leaving late).
Cruz needs to play every game next season, because he has more potential than the rest of them.
We need to SEE THAT success or failure. That is the war we need to win: not just development, but real self-knowledge– e.g. how they handle even months of failure, as Michael Young and Mark Teixeira had the luxury of doing.
Those who prove to be incapable of MLB, we cut with confidence.
Those who prove to be actually serviceable, but not potentially good enough for a 2010 playoff team, we package and trade when it’s valuable or convenient to do so.
And those whose great potential we REALIZE, we suit up with 5 year contracts and Ranger RED.
Are Guzman (26), Mahar(26), West(27), and Gold(27) fillers? Why don’t we hear about Guzman as our Center Fielder? .269, .348 ObP and 56 Stolen Bases in AAA. Gold .292 BA, 26 Homers, 25 Doubles and 103 RBIS with a .347 OBP. Why release Victor DIAZ? Here is a guy with a 37 game tryout with the Rangers in 2007. All he did in this limited playing time is hit 9 homers with 25 RBI for .240 clip. They send him down to AAA and he hits .321, 14 homers and 65 RBI. In anyone elses organization he is an up and comer. What happened? Washington didn’t play that guy enough. Rumor has it that the Twins are interested in Mr. Blalock. If we can get Mr. Pridie, then lets do it. Say good bye to flipper.
Someone above stated, bring back Lofton as Center Fielder. Man Lofton can no longer play center. How many balls did he misplay out there last year? Going 41 isn’t the answer. How long have we needed a center fielder? Who was the last guy? I was against giving Matthews 5 years @ 50 million last year, but now i am not so sure. If as it looks that it is that hard to find a centerfielder and we don’t have anyone else, then why let him walk? Now we are talking 5 years 75 million to Rowand, and God only knows what Jones wants, which i am against. 75-50= 25 million more. Is Rowand that much better than Matthews? If Cameron, signs here for 3 years and earns his money, then have we developed someone to play or we in the same position we are in now? Is it Webster, Borbon, who do they have in mind? If the answer is we don’t know then give Rowand his money or acquire a long term solution.
Hey riega, i have $20 bucks that says in 6 years, Daniels and Washington aren’t here. You wanna take that bet? I thought FUKUDOME, is what Hicks said to the builders when they suggested a retractable roof and/or dome for The Ballpark in Arlington. FUKU, isn’t coming here, in fact he stated part of his name when they asked to negotiate with him. He said he didn’t know the Rangers were a major league team. However, i would like to buy a Rangers jersey with that on the back of it. It sums up my feelings about the organization, Hicks and also some of my fellow bloggers here. My philosopy is that we fail to face reality every FUKU year. Try to add a player here and a player there, for what? So Hicks can generate some excitement, to deal just to be dealing, to put a few more butts in the seats so Hicks can make money. If we do this again this year, we will be out of it again by the All-Star break and Washington will be gone. I want some long term planning. If you want to sign a free-agent, then sign one that you anticipate being here 5 years not 2. In 2 years we will be in the same spot and not addressed the core problem. For instance we don’t have a center fielder. If you sign Cameron, in 2 years we still won’t have a center fielder.
Rumor has it the Red Sox are about to land Santana for Coco Crisp, Lester, a AAA SS and a pitching prospect. If this happens it is a further reminder that SANTANA ain’t coming here unless the Red Sox are playing here. More pipe dreams for people. More reason for delays by the Rangers. The rich get richer and the poor and downtrodden stay where they are, if they are lucky. Our owner is rich in money, but bankrupt when it comes to Leadership and Management!
Kevin West is a great example of organizational filler. Mahar probably hit his way out of prospect status at OKC this year with an OPS line under 700. Gold is a borderline case. He didn’t break out until last year at Friso when he was turning 26. Pretty old for AA. This year at AAA he turned 27. Basically entering the prime of his career he had a good, not great season at AAA. He’ll be eligible for the rule V draft so we’ll see if any other organization thinks he’s a major leaguer. Guzman is on the 40 man roster. He will be protected from rule V so I guess that means the Rangers value him more than Gold, but realistically he’ll never hit enough to justify playing every day. His speed is attractive, but that’s about it. That .348 OBP line he put up in OK would take a big hit if he were to transition to the big leagues. The knock on Diaz is that he’s not patient enough and even though he can dominate AAA his impatience will be exploited by more sophisticated scouting and pitching at the big league level. He did show tremendous power in a small sample, but also only drew only 1 walk in 104 at bats. 5 walks a season isn’t going to cut it.
On an unrelated note, we should be glad that GMJ got that contract from the Angels. He regressed last year and is likey to decline further in the next 4 years due to age. He’s going to be an above average 4th outfielder making more than 10 million a year. The Angels would love to have a do over on that one.
Six years!? That’s a lot of time. There are some here who’d be willing to bet that Washington won’t make it past next year.
Speaking of the Twins, they would be the perfect team for you. I mean, they win. They develop good players. And their owner is a cheapskate so any criticism for not spending is very much justified.
8gleasons:
You have a good point, but Nelson Cruz has been given every opportunity to perform in the majors, and he has just never done it. Here’s his MLB numbers from last year, in over 300 AB’s:
.235 AVG, 9 HR, 87 SO’s to 21 BB’s, .287 OBP.
And here’s his minor league numbers from this year, in about 160 AB’s:
.352 AVG 15 HR, 34 SO’s to 21 BB’s, .428 OBP.
That’s a huge difference. And based on his K/BB numbers in the Majors vs. the Minors, I’d say the problem is he simply can’t handle MLB pitching. It’s been said he can’t hit the breaking ball – that must be true. The Brewers tried this guy, we’ve tried this guy – he hasn’t delivered yet. If we had any other viable options in RF, this guy would be so far down the depth chart you wouldnt even know his name.
You are right about Botts (who, as you say, was stating to show some improvement at the end of the season), we need to get a better look at him, but as far as Cruz goes, I think we really need to look hard for a RF, maybe even harder than a CF, if you don’t want Mike Cameron. How about trading Laird to the Astros for Luke Scott, who is now the odd man out in the ‘Stros OF right now? Scott isn’t superman, but he’s certainly better than Cruz.
Lonestar,
If this were a “make-or-break” year, I might agree with you, but
a) It’s only a “make or re-make” year. I really think our job this year is to find a core of players who might be playoff-ready by 2010, and play them.
b) So far Cruz’s offense is less serviceable than Murphy’s and Byrd’s, but if that can develop as it has after each minor-league jump, then he’s not just serviceable, he’s a diamond in the rough.
5-tool players are rare. Even if they take longer to form, they’re worth the patience.
Do we have it?
8gleasons:
You’re right, this is a make or remake year, which is exactly we need to find a better option than Nelson Cruz for RF. If you want to evaluate a young player in RF, find a young OF prospect with some pop, like Carlos Gonzalez of the D-backs, trade for him, and stick him out there.
I hope you’re right about Cruz, but I just don’t see it. Let me put it this way: if “Nelly” ever even comes close to fullfilling the potential everyone has tabbed him with, you may refer me back here, and I will eat every word of the following paragraph:
Cruz may seem like he has the potential to develop into a 5 tool player looking at his minor league stats, but in over 300 MLB at-bats this year, he did not even show potential to be a 2-tool player. He’s an above average defender in RF, but that’s about it. I know patience can be a virtue, but there’s patience, and then there’s banging your head against a wall, which is all playing Cruz has done for us. As the song goes, you got to know when to hold ‘em, but you also got to know when to fold ‘em – and with Cruz, I think it’s time to fold.
Lonestar,
I was wrong about the 5th tool, for sure. Although he’s a fairly fleet-footed fielder with a cannon for an arm, he had only 2 SB last year!
So make that a potentially “4-tool” player. But his average and power are coming, albeit slowly.
In AA he played
67 games in ’04, and
68 games in ’05.
His ’04 and ’05 AA avg were both over .300
and his OPS went up
from .919 in ’04 to .965 in ’05
In AAA he played
60 games in ’05, and
104 games in ’06.
His ’05 AAA average was .269 and his ’06 average went over .300 again.
His OPS went up
from .872 in ’05 to .906 in’06
In MLB he played
41 games in ’06, and
96 games in ’07.
His ’06 MLB avg was .223 and his ’07 average went up to .235.
His OPS went up
from .646 in ’06 to .671 in ’07
Everyone knows the leap from minors to majors is the greatest, and takes the most time.
His MLB numbers are not impressive, but the fact that he has never leveled out, but has made progress EVERY year, gives me hope.
If he makes his AVERAGE ANNUAL PROGRESS of
plus .19 in Batting Average and
plus .38 in OPS,
then in 3 years he will be hitting
.292 with an OPS of .785,
which is not amazing, but compares roughly with
Michael Young last year:
.313 with an OPS of .784
All I’m asking is what Bryant77′s been saying: to let those we choose to develop work out the kinks for a whole year at a time; to stick with a plan through thick and thin.
By the way, “Nellie” turns the magical baseball age of 27 next year.
… and he had 12 hits in his last 31 MLB at-bats last September, and hit 2 home runs (which, is a .385 average, and a 40-HR clip over 620 at-bats).
But that’s just day-dreaming… All I’m looking for is his
AVERAGE ANNUAL PROGRESS of
plus .19 in Batting Average and
plus .38 in OPS
to decide to keep him each year for the next 3 years, and hopefully more thereafter.
It will hurt for now, but if we bang our heads against the wall patiently, WE will have the last laugh, instead of the Indians… or the Padres…
Cheers,
Eight (9)
p.s.
MIGUEL TEJADA was also similar last year (at an age similar to the age Cruz will be in 2010):
.296 avg. with a .799 OPS.
And Tejada had a very similar “slow but steady” rise to average and power.
Think of the money we’ll save if we sign Nelson Cruz to a 7-year, 21-million dollar contract right now…
But all I’m looking for his + .19 avg and + .38 OPS one year at a time…
Cheers
Good points. If I’m not mistaken, Cruz is out of options anyway – so this year we will either have to stick with him, or find another solution. All I can say is, for the Rangers sake, I sure hope you’re right.
Thanks.I do, too.