Monday Morning Manager…Opening Day
All right, first of all, my predictions:
AL West: Oakland; AL Central: Detroit; AL East: Boston; Wild Card: New York
NL West: San Diego; NL Central: Milwaukee; NL East: Philadelphia; Wild Card: Houston
World Series: Boston over Philadelphia
Now, if I counted right (a dubious proposition at best) 15 of you picked the Rangers to win the West. By the way, you can still go back to last week’s Monday Morning Manager and make your predictions with the rest of us…
So let’s talk Rangers…
1. What’s their final record?
2. They need 65 wins from their rotation to win the division. How do they get that? Break down the number of wins each from Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda and Wright.
3. HR and RBI. How many from Sammy Sosa and how many from Hank Blalock. Two key guys. Who is going to have the better year?
4. Who has more saves at the end of the year: Otsuka or Gagne?
5. What’s your biggest concern about this team? What’s going to really determine if they win this division or not?
That’s it. We have Kevin Millwood vs. John Lackey, Sammy Sosa is back in town, and the Paschal Moon is rising over the Elysian Fields. Time to play 162. No Latin today, it’s a great day in America.
Happy Opening Day to one and all.
T.R. Sullivan
Toby
Opening Day is finally here – it should be an official national holiday!
Thanks, TR, for your great work.
1. 91-71
2. Millwood 18 wins, Padilla 15 wins, McCarthy 14 wins, Tejeda 14 wins, the No. 5 starter combo picks up 10 wins. That adds up to 71 victories, and should get the job done.
3. Sammy 22 HR and 80 RBI, Hank 28 HR and 90 RBI
4. Gange has more saves, with 30, but Otsuka finishes with 18 saves.
5. Despite my prediction in No. 2, starting pitching is a big concern. Another concern is that winning the division seems to hinge on bounce-back years from several players.
Optimism reigns supreme here on opening day, and I think this Texas squad really has what it takes to keep that optimism going to the very end.
The Rangers, despite what a lot of people are saying, do look like they have plenty of offensive firepower in the lineup. IF Wilkerson, Blalock, Sosa and Cruz play up to their potential, this team should have what it takes to put up a lot of runs on just about anybody.
Go Rangers, start the season with a sweep at Anaheim!
1. 89 – 73
2. Millwood – 17, Padilla – 15, McCarthy – 10, Tejeda – 12, Wright – 12
3. Sosa 26 HR and 75 RBI’s, Blalock 18 HR and 95 RBI’s Sosa’s still got the power bat but despite Hank’s injury last year he was still able to hit with runners in scoring postion.
4. Will McCarthy live up to his expectations? Will Wright have a better year than he ever has? If Wright starts out doing bad, how long will it take for Wash to pull the trigger and make Loe the fifth starter? Same goes for Gagne and Otsuka. I guess the burning question is pitching. There are so many factors that are involved though. From Blalock to Wilkerson to Sosa to Cruz to Pitching. Here’s the real question though. At the beginning of last year, did anyone really predict that Detroit would win the ALCS? And right before the playoffs did anyone really predict that St. Louis would beat the Tigers in the World Series? I think just about every team has a shot (except about 3 teams) and every team has holes, gaps, and burning questions of their own. I do know that if the Rangers finish out in last place with 70 something wins that I will still be their fan at the end of the season and I will watch the winter meetings like a hawk and say that they’ve got a real shot in making it next year(as I always have). But if they go to the world series…..I will sell my truck to buy tickets to those games.
GO RANGERS!!!!!! WIN IT ALL
1. What’s their final record? 93-69 The Rangers are better than a .500 club and will improve last year. I think that they will finish the year strong this year and that will boost them over the 90 wins total and be enough for them to win the division.
2. They need 65 wins from their rotation to win the division. How do they get that? Break down the number of wins each from Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda and Wright.
Millwood: 17
Padilla: 14
McCarthy: 15
Tejada: 13
5th Starter: 10+
A lot of people are predicting McCarthy to really come out into the ballpark and struggle, and he may do so for the first 2 months. However, this kid is going to get his stuff together and by June he is going to be the force behind our pitching staff.
3. HR and RBI. How many from Sammy Sosa and how many from Hank Blalock. Two key guys. Who is going to have the better year?
Sosa 26 HRs 81 RBIs
Blalock 33 HRs 98 RBIs
Blalock “should” have the better season between the two. Sosa is going to split time and he will hit homeruns. He has looked incredible during spring training so i think he will come into the season and be quick out the gate but I don’t see him out performing Hank.
4. Who has more saves at the end of the year: Otsuka or Gagne?
Good question. I’ll go with Gagne bc I think he will be healthy and be the main closer and be successful. He should get more saves than Aki did last season.
5. What’s your biggest concern about this team? What’s going to really determine if they win this division or not?
My biggest concern going into the season is Padilla. How is he going to perform after he got his new contract and can he stay in the mental shape that he needs to. Honestly though starting pitching isn’t what’s going to make or break us. It’s going to come down to execution on our offense and if our outfielders can get on base than our infielders will hit them in. The Rangers will win if they can get men in scoring position and execute with men in scoring position. Our bullpen (as shaky as they were during spring training) can hold leads so if the offense gets them a lead then look for the bullpen to substain it.
1. 78-84
2. Millwood 18, Padilla 9, McCarthy 10, Tejeda 15, Wright 7.
3. Sosa doesn’t last the season so he is immaterial. Blalock hits 15 and drives in 75. Cruz has the best year, better than both and Wilkerson
4. Otsuka…Gagne doesn’t reach 10
5. Way too many What Ifs. Sosa, McCarthy, Gagne, Wright, Blalock….Plus I’m not sold on Padilla. This franchise still has a lot of work and is not ready to contend
1. I’m feeling crazy. So I say 88-74. Leading to a down to the wire race for the West. With the Rangers needing a win on the last game of the year to get to the playoffs. They give the ball to McCarthy who is lights out for 7 innings to get us to the post season. (Told you I felt crazy)
2. Millwood 17, Padilla 16, McCarthy 14, Tejeda 14, Wright gets 3 before being replaced by Kam who gets 12.
3. Sammy goes cold and is traded right before the break. Replaced by Botts who is just on fire for the Redhawks. Hank goes for 19 and 88.
4. Gagne has an ok year but can’t pitch day after day. He and Otsuka split 20 saves each.
5. Pitching, its always about pitching. Do we have enough? Will it hold up? Does the outfield finally start to click and hit? Every year I tell my self that this is the year. And every year I tell myself that I really mean it this time. But something feels different now. We’re not trying to fill 3 spots in the rotation. The players are loose and having fun. Everyone loves and respects Wash. It just feels different. I’m not saying that this is the year. Because thats never worked out in the past. But I will just stick to saying that everything just feels different.
1. 90-72
2. Milwood 18, Padilla 15, Tejeda 14, McCarthy 12, Loe 12. I don’t even want to think about Jamey Wright as No. 5.
3. Sosa 20 HRs, 54 RBIs, .254; Blalock 25 HRs, 92 RBIs, .293.
4. Pretty even. I think racertc nails this one. 20-20.
5. The Nos. 3-5 spots in the rotation. I think they have the talent to deliver and I’m remaining optimistic until they prove they can’t do it, but they’re the key. Like Washington says, offense is fleeting, but pitching and defense show up every day. This team needs strong pitching, defense, situational hitting and a stronger approach on the bases. A guy like Kinsler should steal 20-25 bases. Michael Young should get 12-15. Buck didn’t run enough.
Also, I hope I’m wrong, but I’m just a little concerned about how Padilla reacts to a long-term deal. He came up big for us last season, but this guy doesn’t have a long track record of successful pitching. We need Padilla at least as good as he was last season.
You caught us TR…we said the Rangers would win but we really didn’t believe it.
1. 81-81
2. Millwood 15, Padilla 14, Tejada 10, Mccarthy 10, Wright 7, Loe 9(heh heh heh) that makes 65…
3. The question is uneven because Sosa will get only 400 ABs but the answer is Sosa 25,75, .265 Blalock 15, 85, .265…Botts late season call up will be impressive!..and if one of the outfielders goes down also look for the pride of GCC (sorry Lackey, Fahey, Darwin et al.) Victor Diaz…he did all he was suppossed to do in Spring Training
4. Aki…Gagne won’t last the season
5.STARTING PITCHING…sorry for the shout out and by the way I obviously was overly enthusiastic in question 2. We spent the money on pitching but not on the right starters. I don’t think Daniels and Hicks understand the fan’s frustration with the lack of a good starting staff… That said I’ll be in the home run porch for the opener on Friday.
1. 88-74
2. Millwood – 18
Padilla – 13
McCarthy – 14
Tejeda – 11
5th – 9
3. Sosa – 26/78 Blalock – 27/99
4. Gagne
5. My biggest concern is health in general but more specifically the health of the rotation.
Happy opening day to you and all, also!
I think it’s just impossible to make predictions on just about anything for the Rangers right now. I will predict that Michael Young will have 200+ hits. Beyond that, there are way too many IFs, unknowns and variables.
I think Sosa outperforms Blalock this year. And while I hate to say it, Hammerin’ Hank may not be a Ranger in ’08. If ARod leaves the Yankees, he could start a 3B/SS musical chairs ripple effect that impacts many teams. That could make it a good time to move Hank if he doesn’t step it up this year. But I really hope he does.
My biggest concern is the rotation. We still lack an ace or even a legit #1… a guy you hand the ball to every 5th day and know you’re going to get a QS and, 65-70+ percent of the time, a W! Millwood’s a legit #2: 15Ws and 12 or so Ls. That’s a ******** +3 for the team’s record. So he gets us to 84-78. We’ll be lucky to get .500 ball from the other four combined. So even if we get lucky, that leaves us about 7-10 Ws from contention. Where will find those Ws?
http://rangersorrobbers.wordpress.com
1. Season Record: 83-79
2. Millwood 17
Padilla 14
McCarthy 10
Tejeda 12
Wright 07
3. Sosa 25 HR 70 RBI
Blalock 28 HR 80 RBI
4. Otsuka will have the most saves this season
5. The biggest concern is the team’s LOB percentage. To win more games this season than last, the Rangers must lower their LOB%. This should help, to some degree, any pitching struggles. It is one thing to blame pitching for the loss but if you get 12 hits in a game and leaves 10 on base, that does not equate to many wins.
Of course, there are just too many varible factors that can rock the boat; health and overall player performance, from year to year.
As a Ranger fan we should be optomistic but also “realistic”. I’m hoping for a much more productive year.
1. 86-76
2. Millwood 16
Padilla 13
McCarthy 9
Tejeda 14
Wright 5
Loe & Co 9
That’s 66.
3. Sosa: 23/68
Blalock: 30/90
4. Gagné
5. Padilla and Brandon McCarthy. If the pitching isn’t there, we’ll have to settle for another 3rd place finish. What if the team doesn’t play up to Washington’s expectations? How’s he going to react?
1)89-73
2) Millwood-17
Padilla–17
Tejeda—16
McCarthy-15
Wright—13
and that equals 73, because that’s what I believe each will do.
3) Sammy Sosa–30 HR’s, 90 RBI
Hank Blalock-25 HR’s, 99 RBI
Who has a better year? The stats will be a wash, but I’m willing to bet Hank will bear down and hit to all fields, and maybe more timely. So, Hank will have slightly better year–but not much more than Sammy.
4) Otsuka will have about what he did last year, around 30. I’m not betting Gagne will have over 6 or 7. I’m praying he’s healthy, but don’t see he’s better than Aki. JUST based on his reputation, Gagne is superior, but how can you take Aki’s saves last year, and what he meant for us, and remove his save chances JUST based on what Gagne has done in the past, and after arm/shoulder problems and surgery, and 2 years off? Aki is far more valuable. Light years more valuable–(Look at the old baseball cliche’: “What have you done for me lately?”–Aki proves what he did. Gagne has done nothing for the Rangers…yet. I pray he’s healthy.
5) I’ve been harping and harping on the ineptitude of Brad Wilkerson since I’ve been on this blog. IF we really can’t find anyone who can make contact, and provide at least some clutch hitting, from one of our “guaranteed” outfield spots, I feel we our outmatched overall on our hitting/power and ability to get on base. (Last night, case in point: All I’d hear from Tom and his sidekick on the TV broadcast was how “great a shape Brad was in this year”, and “how he has so much he wants to prove this year”, and “how, since he’s healthy, he is set for a breakout season.”…REALLY?????? All I could manage to do was keep my food down when he had a man on third base and took strike three looking! What, pray tell, has changed with this guy? Did the off-season surgery mend his batting eye and doesn’t he know all he has to do is send a flyball to the outfield, and you can’t do that when you leave the bat on your shoulder? I am fed up after one-at-bat, in the first game of the season. Where are you Marlon Byrd? Where are you Ruben Sierra–couldn’t you perform better, even at your Sosa-like age than the pretender who has everybody sold that he can perform? I vote to bring Ruben back. I say that more tongue-in-cheek, but hey guys, Wilkerson hasn’t changed his stripes at all. I don’t care how great a shape he’s in, or how much better he should be this year–Brad might be the nicest guy on earth, and a great team guy, but he is still a rip-roaring bust–but at least he’s a healthy rip-roaring bust. He must be replaced, in my humble opinion. Hope JD has Ruben’s cell number. Yes, I’d say I’m concerned. And my prediction of 89 wins was based on having BW on the roster. Just think what we could accomplish without BW. Mind-boggling.
1) 76-86, 10 games under. The RANGERS aren’t going to beat the A’s or the Angels and maybe not the Mariners. The A’s and Angels both play fundamental baseball. The RANGERS don’t and never have. Saying you are going to do those things and doing them are two different things.
2) 65 wins from these starters ain’t gonna happen. That is 13 per pitcher, aint’ gonna happen. Millwood and Padilla should have about 16 to 17 each if they remain healthy. Thats 34 wins max. The other 31 from the other three that is 10 1/3 from the other starters ain’t gonna happen. Look at history. How many times has the Rangers pitching staff stayed healthy thoughout the year?
3) Sosa 12 Homers 49 RBIs. Flipper has about 22 Homers 92 RBI.
4) Otsuka
5) Inability or unwillingness to sacrifice, hit and run and advance runners. Lack of clutch hitting, too many strikeouts in key situations, put the **** ball in play! If you are going to make an out at least get something out of it. THE TOTAL DEPENDENCE ON THE HOME RUN! ALWAYS PLAYING FOR THE HUGE INNING EARL WEAVER BASEBALL!!! The RANGERS need to pretend that they are playing in the National League. If the RANGERS struggle early WASHINGTON is in for a long year!!! It is only the 1st game, but the bullpen didn’t look to dominant last night. And another thing, do the Rangers know what a suicide squeeze is??? The teams that win have pitching and defense and play good fundamental baseball. You could use some baseball, now give it to us. Hillman where are you? I hope no one bet any money on Texas going to the World Series.
I’d like to update my comment from yesterday, now that the intoxicating optimism of opening day has worn off.
I think predicting a poor Rangers season is actually quite clear.
Down the stretch last year, the Rangers couldn’t keep pace, and as always, it was pitching that let any chance at success slip away. So, the team couldn’t compete in the West with a starting 5 primarily consisting of Milwood, Padilla, Eaton, Volquez and Tejeda.
I predict that’s better than what we have now:
Millwood ’06 will be a push with Millwood ’07. Those predicting more than 15-17 Ws out of Kevin are just not being objective fans.
Padilla ’07 will be worse than Padilla ’06. Last year was a contract year for Padilla, and he pitched like it. But now that he has a nice (but not huge where he’d have something to prove) contract from the same team he pitched for last year… well, that’s a recipe for complacency. And complacency is not a successful mentality for a guy who needs a Doberman attitude to succed.
McCarthy ’07 will be worse than end-of-season Eaton ’06. Adam didn’t have a great ERA, but he was 3 games over .500 after the All-Star break (which as I recall is the only part of the season he pitched). McCarthy is trying to become a starting major league pitcher on an offensice minded team in a launching pad Ballbark with no history of producing successful pitchers. He will fall apart. Wish it weren’t so, for him and the team, but I don’t see anything from him that says he’ll be the second (after Kevin Brown) pitcher to break out his first big season as a starter while in Arlington.
Wright ’07 will be better than Volquez ’06. Volquez was 1-6 in 8 starts after the break last year. Wright will at least do better than that, and could be the wildcard that proves me wrong. I hope so. Let’s see what “electric stuff” really means.
Tejeda ’07 will be worse than Tejeda ’06 post break. Robinson is not a low 2.x ERA guy. He pitched lights out down the stretch, but I fear we’ve seen his best – and now so have all of the AL West.
So how does the rotation achieve more in ’07 than it did down the stretch in ’06?
It can’t. And therefore, unless a guy who can win 5+ more games than he loses is acquired, the Rangers will be – at best – a .500 team again this season.
http://rangersorrobbers.wordpress.com/
Good lord. Two games into the season and you people are already doom and gloom. Your not acting like real fans. I guess when the Mavs were 0-4 everyone gave up on them too…
McCarthy was not “Lights Out” today, or maybe he was depends on the definition. I do know that the Angels were not out. At least the bullpen was solid and I suspect that will have to be the case throughout the season. Not sure that Ranger Fans are all “Doom and Gloom”, just hoping for more. During their first nine games last year, they were 2-7. We’ll see how they do during the upcomig home stand. Hopefully, better.
Sparky Anderson used to say you had to play 45 games before you knew what you had. I’m willing to give this team 1 1/2 months before saying they ****.
I saw some positive things, including McCarthy’s pitching after a shaky first inning when he undoubtedly was a bit revved up; Benoit and Loe carrying their spring trainings into the regular season and Kinsler’s start.
I think the top four spots in the rotation are going to be fine. Jamey Wright? Well, we all know what he’s done in his career. At 32, it’s doubtful he’ll change much.
Let’s go home, win at least 4 of 6 and we’ll be fine.
I know there are many on here who are ready to cry that the sky is falling, but many of those same “fans” are the same ones who only come on here when the team is playing poorly.
1.82 -82
I honestly do not believe this Rangers team is significantly better than last year’s. While I think the starting pitching could be marginally better I also think the offense will be marginally worse – the bullpen will be pretty good – but I don’t think Eric Gagne will play a significant role (see answer to #4 below). I’ve read the glowing praise for Ron Washington and the improved atmosphere in the clubhouse – nice guys and happy clubhouses don’t make up for lack of talent – ask Buddy Bell and the Royals fans. By the way, as I discussed with a guy I know, when I was in Arizona a couple of weeks ago – the most dominant team (in my less than humble opinion) of the 1970’s was the Oakland A’s. Have you ever read or heard the stories about their contentious clubhouse? Many of the players loathed their manager, **** Williams. Talent, not “atmosphere”, wins games.
2. Millwood 17 wins, Padilla 11, Tejeda 13, McCarthy 9, I don’t think Jamey Wright will be with the Rangers by mid-season – so let’s just call it the “5th Starter” – with 10 – yes I know that is not 65 – a .500 team won’t get 65 wins from it’s rotation.
3. Hank 20 HR – 80 RBI – Sammy 6 HR’s – 25 RBI (and won’t be on the team by the All Star break – or at least I hope he won’t be)
4. Otsuka – I still believe that Eric Gagne, after missing the majority 2 seasons – and having back problems (didn’t back problems end John Wetteland’s career?) – will not return to his former self – can he become Trevor Hoffman? I seriously doubt it.
5. Let me answer the second part first: the only way this team contends for a division spot is: if there are significant injuries that hamper the Angels and Oakland coupled with a extraordinary (career) year by one of the Rangers starters and one of the position players.
My biggest concern about this team, and the organization in general is their ability to correctly evaluate talent at the major league level and their scouting for draft picks.
Look at the 2 “major” trades from last season – with Washington and San Diego – the return on the first is marginal, and the second …. Well, I bet Tom Grieve is relieved because he’s no longer the instigator of the worst trade in Rangers history – because this one is appears to have taken it’s place. I am amused when it’s pointed out to me at the “steals” in acquiring Padilla and Tejeda were good trades – oh really? That team the Rangers supposedly “hijacked” – didn’t they contend for a Wild Card spot? Aren’t they picked by many as a contender (I know at least 2 of us have predicted them to go to the World Series). Those trades didn’t seem to hurt the Phillies ability contend. As for the big trade from the past off season – too early to say – but the early results are not encouraging.
And lets talk about the minor league talent , the Rangers are rated 28th out of 30 teams by Baseball America. How many farm directors in the past 4 years? I look at the lineup I see a 39 year old CF and 38 year old DH – and I’m thinking – what about all this lip service we get from the front office about “homegrown” talent? Does the front office not like, or trust the players they’ve developed (the Angels and A’s don’t seem to have same hesitation.) The best prospect in the system is now wearing a White Sox uniform, the (supposed) best position player sits on the DL along, one heralded pitcher (and # 1 draft pick) sits on the DL after Tommy John surgery while another is back at High A “re-learning” his craft. Did anyone look at the opening day rosters for the minors? It’s easier to count the few players who moved up a level, than it is to count the “prospects” who are repeating the same level as last season – is this progress?
My thoughts about this team and this organization in general are summed up by headline from a few years ago in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram: “Brand New Season, Same Old Rangers”.
E.czajka,
Agree with much of what you write, but as for the two trades with the Phils … yes, those were good trades. Just because the Phils contended for a wild card spot has no bearing on whether they were good trades or not. Even if the Rangers had contended for most of last season, the trade with the Padres would not have been a good one. Padilla for Ricardo Rodriguez? A steal. Tejeda for Delucci? Final results aren’t in yet, but I’d trade a spare outfielder for a live, young arm any day.
As for the trade with the Padres and the one with the Nats, well, as we all know, the results have not been quite what we all would have liked. Soriano, Chris Young and Gonzalez for Aki and Wilkerson? Ouch.